Forest 3-1 City: Delap double and a six-point gap
Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City 3-1 at the City Ground on Saturday evening, and the result leaves the champions six points behind Arsenal after ten rounds. Liam Delap scored twice. Forest, who had not won at home in the league this season, moved to nine points and sixteenth place. City stayed on 21.
The afternoon had already gone badly for City before kick-off at the City Ground. Arsenal beat Hull City 1-0 at the Emirates in the early kick-off, a ninth win in ten league games, and the gap at the top of the Premier League table opened to six points. City's response was a defeat that leaves them third, below Brighton on goal difference, with 21 goals scored and 13 conceded.
Delap's double
Delap scored twice for Forest, and the goals changed the shape of a season that had been drifting. Forest had scored six goals in their first nine league matches. They finished this one with nine, having put three past a defence that had conceded only ten times in the league before Saturday.
The home side had also conceded 12 goals in nine games, which is why the bottom half of the table had looked tighter than the results suggested. A first home win of the campaign is a small number in a table, but it is the kind of result that changes how a squad reads its own season. Forest had drawn three and lost five before this match. They now have two wins, three draws and five defeats from ten.
City's second defeat in eight days
City lost at home to Brighton on 31 October and lost again at Forest on 7 November. That is two league defeats in eight days for a side that had won seven of its first nine. The pattern in the table is blunt: seven wins, no draws, three defeats. A team with no draws is a team whose matches are decided, and City have now been on the wrong side of three of them.
The attacking numbers are still strong. Twenty-one goals in ten games is the second-best return in the division behind Brighton's 26. The problem is at the other end: 13 conceded is more than Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Everton, Brentford, Leeds, Tottenham, Fulham and Hull have let in. For a side built to control matches, that is an unusual profile.
What the table says now
Arsenal have 27 points from 30. Brighton have 22, City 21, Liverpool 18 and Chelsea 16. The top two have separated themselves by results rather than by reputation, and the champions are now chasing from third.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
Six points is not a crisis in November, and there is a long way to go. But the table no longer flatters City, and the two teams above them have the numbers to match their positions. Arsenal have conceded five goals in ten matches. Brighton have scored 26 and conceded seven. City have the worst defensive record of the top three by a distance.
The goal difference column
Goal difference tells a slightly different story from points. Brighton are plus 19, Arsenal plus 10, City plus 8, Liverpool plus 4 and Chelsea plus 3. Brighton have scored 26 goals in ten games, an average of 2.6 per match, and the second-best defensive record in the division after Arsenal. Arsenal have scored 15, an average of 1.5, and have still won nine of ten. One team wins by volume, the other by control, and both are ahead of the champions.
For City the asymmetry is the issue. They have scored more than Arsenal and conceded almost three times as many. In a title race decided over 38 games, that is the difference between a team that wins 1-0 and a team that has to win 3-1. City have won seven and lost three, with no draws at all, which is the profile of a side whose matches are open.
Arsenal's profile is the opposite. Fifteen goals in ten games is a modest return for a team on 27 points, but five conceded is the foundation of it. Nine wins from ten with an average of 1.5 goals scored means most of their matches have been decided by a single goal or a clean sheet. It is not the most exciting way to lead a league, but it is the most repeatable.
Forest's season in numbers
Forest's own table line is worth reading in full, because it explains why this result was not a fluke of a bad night for the visitors:
- Ten matches, two wins, three draws and five defeats.
- Nine goals scored and 13 conceded, a goal difference of minus four.
- Nine points, sixteenth place, one point above the bottom three.
- One home win, earned against the champions.
The win does not lift Forest out of the bottom half. It does leave them level on points with Coventry and one point above Manchester United and Sunderland, and it gives a squad that had scored six goals in nine games a different memory to carry into the next round.
The rest of the weekend
The round was not only about City. Arsenal beat Hull City 1-0 at home, Brighton beat Brentford 2-0, Liverpool won 3-1 at Crystal Palace and Sunderland beat Chelsea 1-0. Manchester United drew 4-4 with Aston Villa, a result that leaves United on eight points and Villa on 13. The full list of results and fixtures and the table for every competition are on the site.
What comes next
No Premier League fixture appears in the calendar over the next four days, so the table will not move before the middle of next week. City's next league match comes after that pause, and the gap to Arsenal will be measured again then. Forest travel with a win behind them and a table that still shows them sixteenth.
The champions have lost three league games before the middle of November and have not drawn one. That is the number to watch: a side that cannot draw is a side that has to win, and the table has started to charge for it.