How football odds work
A price is a probability with a margin built in. Once you can read it, the market stops looking like magic.
Decimal, fractional, American
A decimal price of 2.50 means: stake 1, get 2.50 back if it wins (1.50 profit). Fractional 6/4 is the same price. American +150 is also the same price. Our tables always show decimal, because it converts straight into probability.
From price to probability
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. At 2.50 that is 40%. Add the implied probabilities of all outcomes and you get more than 100% - the extra is the bookmaker margin.
| Outcome | Decimal | Implied | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 45.8% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 28.9% |
| Away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 24.1% |
What fair probability is for
Fair probability strips the margin. Compare it with your own estimate: if you think the home side wins 52% of the time and the fair price says 45.8%, the market is underpricing your view - that gap is where value lives, if your estimate is right.
Rules of the house
- No tips, no guarantees, no "sure wins".
- Odds move; a price shown in the morning may be gone by kick-off.
- Stake only what you can lose. 18+.