How to read football odds without guessing
Two numbers, one division, and the reason a 2.05 favourite is not a 50 per cent shot.
Today on MatchData: Premier League weekend: five results that moved the table. Champions League matchday three: what the odds say, plus every table and price below.
| TEAM | P | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 12 |
Manchester City top on 21 pts after 7, 3 clear of Arsenal. Best attack Brighton & Hove Albion (23), best defence Arsenal (5).
| TEAM | P | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 16 |
Barcelona top on 27 pts after 9, 5 clear of Atlético Madrid. Best attack Barcelona (39), best defence Athletic Club (6).
| TEAM | P | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 14 |
Internazionale top on 19 pts after 7, 0 clear of Lazio. Best attack Internazionale (21), best defence AS Roma (3).
Two numbers, one division, and the reason a 2.05 favourite is not a 50 per cent shot.
Fifth on 12 points can be a better team than second on 15. Here is the arithmetic.
Two goals, zero conceded, and a scoreline that says more about control than about firepower.
A 2.10 home price is not dominance. It is 47.6 per cent with a 5.7 per cent tax.
Fewer teams, fewer matches, and every point worth more than it looks.
One table, 36 clubs, eight games each. The format rewards the top eight and punishes everyone below 24.



Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City - the market says: implied probabilities below, margin 5.1%.