Everton v Coventry: Grealish unavailable for Friday
Everton host Coventry City at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Friday night in the opening fixture of Premier League matchweek ten, and David Moyes will again be without Jack Grealish. The Everton manager said on Thursday that the midfielder remains unavailable for the game. The club has not confirmed when he will return.
Everton start the round seventh on 13 points from nine matches: three wins, four draws and two defeats, with nine goals scored and nine conceded. Coventry are sixteenth on nine points from the same number of games, with three wins and six defeats, nine goals scored and sixteen conceded. The table separates them by four places and four points, and goal difference separates them by seven.
Grealish still out
Moyes gave the update at his pre-match media conference, and it was reported by BBC Sport on Thursday afternoon. The wording was narrow: Grealish is not available for this fixture. No timescale was offered, no return date has been announced, and there was no suggestion that the problem is a long one. Everton have confirmed only that he will not play on Friday.
The timing is awkward because Everton's attacking output is already the weakest part of their season. Nine goals in nine games is a modest return for a side in seventh, and only Nottingham Forest and Sunderland have scored fewer in the division. Everton have reached 13 points through control rather than volume: four draws, two defeats and a goal difference of zero.
Their defensive record is the platform. Nine conceded is bettered only by Arsenal with five and Brighton with seven, and it is level with Liverpool and Brentford. A team that gives away one goal per game can afford to score one, which is roughly what Everton have done.
Coventry's three wins and six defeats
Frank Lampard's side are one of three teams yet to draw a league match this season: nine games, three wins, six defeats, no draws. That pattern has produced nine points and sixteenth place, two points above the bottom three. Coventry's 3-1 win over Sunderland on 31 October was their third victory of the campaign.
The problem is at the other end. Sixteen goals conceded in nine matches is the third-worst record in the division, behind only Crystal Palace with 21, Ipswich Town with 18 and Sunderland with 17. A side that concedes 1.8 goals a game needs to score twice to win, and Coventry have scored nine times all season.
That combination, a goal a game and nearly two conceded, explains why Coventry's matches have produced 25 goals in nine rounds, an average of 2.8 per game. Everton's matches have produced 18, an average of 2.0. The same league, two very different kinds of evening.
The two records side by side
| Club | Pos | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 7 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| Coventry City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
The two attacking columns are identical: nine goals each in nine games. The four-point gap is built entirely at the other end. Everton have turned four draws and two narrow defeats into a respectable season; Coventry have turned three wins into a relegation-adjacent one because the six defeats have produced no points and a defence that leaks almost two goals a game.
Everton's four draws are among the highest totals in the division: only Brentford, Leeds United and Hull City, with five each, have drawn more. That is not a fluke of scheduling so much as a description of how Moyes has set the side up: compact, hard to break down, and short of the final third.
The points rates tell the same story from a different angle. Everton's 13 from nine is 1.44 per game, which over a season projects to about 55 points. Coventry's nine is 1.0, which projects to 38. Those projections assume nothing changes, and something always does, but they mark the distance between mid-table comfort and a relegation fight.
What the odds say
The DraftKings prices for Friday make Everton a clear favourite: -140 for the home win, +300 for the draw and +360 for Coventry. Converted to implied probability, that is 58.3 per cent Everton, 25.0 per cent draw and 21.7 per cent Coventry, a total of 105 per cent. The extra five points are the bookmaker's margin.
The total goals line is 2.5, and the prices lean towards the under. Everton's matches have averaged 2.0 goals and Coventry's 2.8, while the two clubs have combined for 43 goals in 18 league games, an average of 2.39. A tight game would fit Everton's season; an open one would fit Coventry's.
The rest of the round
- Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur, Saturday 12:30: Leeds +160, draw +240, Spurs +175.
- Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 15:00: Arsenal -600, draw +700, Hull +1500.
- Fulham v Newcastle United, Saturday 15:00: Fulham +110, draw +265, Newcastle +240.
- Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 17:30: Forest +340, draw +300, City -140.
Arsenal's home game against Hull is the shortest price of the weekend at -600. Forest against City is the closest of the four matches listed above, and it is the one that matters most at the top. The rest of the round, including Manchester United against Aston Villa, is on the fixtures page.
What Friday changes
A win would take Everton to 16 points, level with Chelsea, before the rest of the round is played. A Coventry win would take them to 12, level with Tottenham, Aston Villa and Bournemouth. A draw would leave Everton on 14 and Coventry on 10, which would suit neither side much.
For Everton the question is whether a team with nine goals in nine games can create enough without Grealish. For Coventry it is whether a defence that has conceded 16 can survive a night of pressure and take the chances that come its way. The odds say the home side should. The table says the gap is four points, which is not much at all.
Neither club has confirmed any further team news. Changes will be reported when the line-ups are released. The Premier League page has the full table, and the matches page has every kick-off time in the round. For a guide to the prices used here, see the betting section.