Como v Manchester United: one table, two directions
Como host Manchester United at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Wednesday afternoon with the same number of Champions League points and completely different seasons behind them. Both have three points from two matches. Como are fifth in Serie A. United are 13th in the Premier League, and the table is not lying about either of them.
Two tables, one points total
Como have 14 points from seven Serie A matches, four wins, two draws and one defeat, 12 goals scored and seven conceded. That is fifth place in a division where the top two, Internazionale and Lazio, are on 19 and the gap to fourth is a single point. United have seven points from seven in the Premier League, one win, four draws and two defeats, ten scored and ten conceded, and sit 13th.
The symmetry stops there. Como have won four of seven; United have won one. Como have a goal difference of plus five; United's is zero, built from identical scoring and conceding. Four draws is the joint-highest total in the Premier League, and it is the number that best explains why a club of that size is in the bottom half.
The season numbers side by side
| Competition | Club | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | Como | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| Champions League | Como | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Premier League | Manchester United | 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Champions League | Manchester United | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Both clubs are on plus two in Europe, and Como sit one place higher only because they have scored two more goals. Over two matches that is a rounding error rather than a verdict, but it is also the reason the table reads Como 12th and United 13th before a ball is kicked on Wednesday.
Read the European rows first. Both clubs won one and lost one with the same goal difference, and Como are a place higher on goals scored. They have six in two Champions League matches and four conceded, which is more attacking than their league record and the reason the tie looks closer than the two domestic tables suggest.
Como's route to the competition
Cesc Fabregas has built a side that wins narrowly rather than dramatically. Four wins from seven in Serie A, 12 goals scored, seven conceded: the profile of a team that is organised first and creative second, and one that has taken more points than its squad list would suggest. This is Como's first Champions League campaign, described by the club as a historic one, and two matches have produced three points, six goals and a place in the middle of the table.
The Italian table is unusually compressed at the top. Internazionale and Lazio have 19 points, Roma 17, Milan 15, Como 14, Frosinone and Cagliari 13. Six clubs are separated by six points, and Como are closer to fourth than to eighth, which is the measure of how well the season has started.
United's start in numbers
One win in seven, four draws, ten goals each way. United have not been beaten heavily and have not won convincingly, which is the definition of a season that drifts: no crisis in the scorelines, no progress in the table. Michael Carrick has said he wants clean sheets to help turn the season around, and the numbers explain why. Ten conceded in seven is mid-table; ten scored is fewer than Ipswich in 10th and the same as Newcastle in 11th.
The draws are the story. Four of seven matches have finished level, and a team that turns two of them into wins is on 11 points and in the top eight; a team that keeps drawing is on seven and answering the same questions in November.
The team news
United's preparations have been reported to be affected by a long absentee list. The English press put the number at nine players, with a shortage in defence described as the central problem, and the club has issued an injury update of its own before the trip. This page does not name players whose absence the club has not confirmed.
The fixture itself has also been reported to be at risk from the weather in northern Italy. No decision to postpone has been announced by the competition organisers and the match is listed as scheduled. If that changes it will be reported, not assumed.
The odds
The market makes Como the favourites at 2.30, with the draw at 3.75 and United at 2.80, on a line of 2.5 goals. Those prices imply 43.5, 26.7 and 35.7 per cent, a book of 105.9 per cent, which normalised reads 41.1, 25.2 and 33.7. A side fifth in Serie A being priced ahead of Manchester United in Europe is the most informative number in this preview.
What to watch
- Both clubs have three points from two Champions League matches.
- Como are fifth in Serie A on 14 points; United are 13th in the Premier League on seven.
- United have drawn four of seven league games, the joint-highest total in the division.
- Nine absentees have been reported for United; the club has not confirmed the list.
- The market prices Como at 2.30, the draw at 3.75 and United at 2.80.
The Champions League section has the table and the rest of matchday three, the Serie A page follows Como's domestic season, and kick-off times for every fixture are on the matches page.