Champions League matchday three: what the odds say
The Champions League league phase reaches matchday three on 20 and 21 October, and the fixture list has produced the first genuinely heavyweight pair of the season. Paris Saint-Germain host Barcelona on Tuesday with both clubs on six points from two matches. Liverpool host Villarreal. Manchester City host AEK Athens. Bayern Munich meet Arsenal on Wednesday. The market has opinions about all of it.
The league phase after two matches
Nine clubs have won both games. PSG lead on goal difference with ten scored and three conceded, Barcelona and Aston Villa are next on nine and two, Liverpool have eight and four, Arsenal four and none. At the other end Napoli, Porto, Inter, Lille and Galatasaray have no points at all. With six matches still to play nobody is through and nobody is out, but the seeding for the knockout play-off round already has a shape.
Bayern Munich are the interesting case in tenth. Four points from two games, eight goals scored and three conceded, and a home match against Arsenal next. That is a top-eight profile with a mid-table points total, which is exactly the sort of gap the new format was designed to punish.
Tuesday's eight fixtures and the prices
Prices below are the DraftKings lines carried in our fixtures feed. The implied probability is the percentage chance the price itself implies, calculated before the bookmaker's margin. Add the three outcomes in any match and the total comes to more than 100, and the excess is the margin.
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague | -145 | +320 | +370 | 59.2% |
| Sabah v Borussia Dortmund | +800 | +500 | -330 | 11.1% |
| AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava | -575 | +700 | +1400 | 85.2% |
| Porto v PSV Eindhoven | -155 | +350 | +360 | 60.8% |
| Liverpool v Villarreal | -200 | +380 | +475 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City v AEK Athens | -1100 | +1100 | +2200 | 91.7% |
| Napoli v Bodo/Glimt | -165 | +350 | +390 | 62.3% |
| Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona | +140 | +350 | +145 | 41.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid | +220 | +290 | +110 | 31.2% |
PSG and Barcelona, and a coin toss that is not one
PSG at +140 and Barcelona at +145 implies 41.7 and 40.8 per cent, with the draw at +350 implying 22.2. That is as close to a pure coin toss as a fixture between two clubs of this size gets, and the market is telling you it cannot separate them. The goal line is 4.5, the highest on the card, which is the market saying it expects an open game rather than a cautious one.
The form line supports the price. PSG have scored ten in two, Barcelona nine in two, and both have conceded. Neither has kept a clean sheet in the competition. A 2-2 is priced more cheaply than a 0-0 by the over/under line, and that is the single most informative number in the match.
Liverpool against Villarreal
Liverpool at -200 implies 66.7 per cent, Villarreal at +475 implies 17.4, the draw at +380 implies 20.8. Liverpool have six points and a goal difference of plus four; Villarreal have three points, five scored and four conceded. The price is short but not absurd, and the 3.5 goal line suggests the market sees goals rather than a grind.
The caution is scheduling. Liverpool play in the Premier League on the Sunday before and the Saturday after, and rotation in the league phase is now normal for clubs with squad depth. A starting eleven without two regulars is worth more to Villarreal than any tactical adjustment.
City, Roma and the shortest prices on the card
Manchester City at -1100 against AEK Athens implies 91.7 per cent. Roma at -575 against Slovan Bratislava implies 85.2. Dortmund at -330 at Sabah implies 76.7. These are the prices that look like certainties and behave like traps: the implied probability is high, the payout is small, and a single set piece turns the bet into a loss of ninety minutes of exposure for a return of nine per cent.
City's position is the one to watch for reasons beyond the price. They have three points from two matches and sit 17th, having lost one already. The table says a club in the bottom half of the league phase, the price says the strongest team on the card. Both are true, and that tension is the format working as intended.
Wednesday, and where the value sits
Bayern Munich against Arsenal is the fixture of the week: +115, +275, +205, which implies 46.5, 26.7 and 32.8. Arsenal have not conceded in the competition; Bayern have scored eight. Something has to give, and the market has priced the home side as a marginal favourite rather than a clear one.
Real Madrid at -370 against RB Leipzig implies 78.7, Inter against Shakhtar has no price in our feed, and Aston Villa at -390 against Viking implies 79.6. Three more short prices, three more matches where the interesting question is not who wins but by how much, and the handicap markets rather than the outright ones carry the information.
- Nine clubs are on six points; only the top eight go straight to the last sixteen.
- The highest goal line on the card is 4.5, in Paris.
- Four clubs have no points after two matches, including Inter and Porto.
- Every price quoted here carries a margin, so implied probabilities add up to more than 100.
Prices move with team news, and team news arrives late. Treat the numbers above as the market's opening view of matchday three, not as a forecast, and check the confirmed line-ups before forming a view. The fixtures page carries kick-off times and the standings, and the betting section explains how the margins in these prices are built.