Matchweek 10: Arsenal's cushion and the chasing numbers
Nine rounds into the Premier League season, Arsenal have 24 points from a possible 27. They have won eight, lost one and drawn none. Manchester City have 21, Brighton 19, Chelsea 16 and Liverpool 15. The gap at the top is three points, and the shape of the table is stranger than the gap suggests.
Two of the top three have not drawn a match. Brentford, in sixth, have drawn five of nine. Brighton have scored 24 goals and conceded seven. Liverpool have scored 11 and conceded nine. The same nine rounds have produced very different seasons.
Twenty-four from twenty-seven
Arsenal's start is the best in the division by points and by defence. Eight wins from nine, 14 goals scored and five conceded, a goal difference of plus nine. They beat Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield on 1 November, the result that opened the three-point gap, and they have kept the lowest goals-against total in the league.
The arithmetic is striking. Arsenal have won 88.9 per cent of their matches and taken 2.67 points per game. City have taken 2.33, Brighton 2.11, Chelsea 1.78 and Liverpool 1.67. Over nine games those rates are descriptions, not forecasts, but they show how little room the chasing pack has for a bad fortnight.
The top seven after nine games
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
Brighton's 24 goals
Brighton are the anomaly. Third on 19 points with six wins, one draw and two defeats, they have scored 24 goals, four more than any other side, and their goal difference of plus 17 is eight better than Arsenal's and seven better than City's.
They beat Crystal Palace 4-0 on 18 October and won 1-0 at Manchester City on 31 October. Those two results sum up the profile: a four-goal afternoon at home and a clean sheet at the Etihad. Brighton have conceded two more than Arsenal and scored ten more.
City's volume and Arsenal's control
City have scored 20 goals, six more than Arsenal, from the same number of games. They have also lost twice. One of those defeats was a 0-1 home loss to Brighton on 31 October, a result that left them three points behind. The difference between the top two is not attacking output but the distribution of results: Arsenal have turned eight of nine games into wins, City seven of nine, and neither side has drawn.
A team that never draws compresses the table. Every dropped point is a defeat, and every defeat is worth three points to a rival. Arsenal's single loss and City's two are the whole of the three-point gap; the goals columns, which favour City by six, do not enter the calculation at all.
Liverpool's eleven goals
Liverpool's 15 points come from four wins, three draws and two defeats. Eleven goals in nine games is the lowest return in the top six, and their goal difference of plus two is the smallest of the top five. The 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal on 1 November left them nine points behind the leaders.
That is a strange position for a side with only two defeats. Three draws have cost them six points, and a attack that averages 1.2 goals per game has turned winnable matches into splits. Brentford, a point behind with a game's worth of draws, have scored 16.
Brentford and the value of a draw
Brentford are the mirror image of the top two. One defeat in nine, five draws, three wins, 14 points, and a goal difference of plus seven that is better than Chelsea's plus four. They have lost fewer matches than any side outside the top three and are still sixth, because five draws are worth five points and five wins would have been worth fifteen.
That is the tax on a team that does not lose and does not quite win. Brentford have scored 16 and conceded nine, a profile close to Everton's but with seven more goals. If the draws start turning into wins, they are the side best placed to break into the top four; if they do not, sixth is where a season of near-misses ends.
The weekend's prices
Matchweek ten opens on Friday with Everton v Coventry, where Everton are -140 and Coventry +360. The headline matches are on Saturday:
- Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur: Leeds +160, draw +240, Spurs +175.
- Arsenal v Hull City: Arsenal -600, draw +700, Hull +1500.
- Fulham v Newcastle United: Fulham +110, draw +265, Newcastle +240.
- Nottingham Forest v Manchester City: Forest +340, draw +300, City -140.
Arsenal are the shortest price of the round at -600, which is what a 24-point leader at home should be against a side in the bottom half. City's trip to Forest is the one with the most at stake: a defeat, combined with an Arsenal win over Hull earlier in the afternoon, would leave the gap at six points.
What nine games can and cannot tell us
Nine games is a small sample with a lopsided fixture list. Arsenal's 2.67 points per game would be worth 101 over a season, City's 2.33 would be worth 89 and Brighton's 2.11 would be worth 80. Those numbers are arithmetic, not forecasts, and no table in November has ever decided a title.
The fixture list is also unbalanced. No two clubs have played the same nine opponents, and the table makes no adjustment for that. Arsenal's eight wins include a trip to Anfield; City's two defeats include a home loss to Brighton. Neither line is a full description of either team, only a record of what they have done so far.
What the table does say is narrower and more useful. Arsenal have the best defence, Brighton the best attack, City the best goal difference among the top two, and Liverpool the weakest scoring record of the contenders. The gaps are small enough that one weekend can rearrange them, which is why the round that starts on Friday matters more than its fixtures suggest.
The full standings for all six competitions are on the tables page, and the Premier League page has the round in order. Prices are explained in the betting section.