Chelsea stuck on 16: the numbers behind the stall
Chelsea took 16 points from their first nine matches and 16 from their first ten. The arithmetic of the extra game is the whole story of their November: a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, a team in the bottom three, and a points total that has not moved while the clubs around them have.
Paul Merson said on Sky Sports this week that Chelsea are not showing the consistency to finish in the Champions League places. The table agrees with him in a narrow, specific way: Chelsea are fifth, two points behind Liverpool, and level on points with Everton, a side that has scored seven fewer goals.
Sixteen, then sixteen
Five wins, one draw and four defeats is a profile of a team that wins in blocks and loses in singles. Chelsea have the third-best attack in the division with 19 goals, behind only Brighton and Manchester City, and the joint tenth-worst defence with 16 conceded. Six clubs have let in more, one has let in the same.
The single draw is the outlier. Brighton have one too, but they have won seven. Chelsea's problem is not that they fail to dominate matches. It is that the matches they do not dominate end in defeat rather than a point, and the four defeats are why they are fifth rather than fourth.
The top eight after ten games
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
Four points cover fifth to eighth. Chelsea's cushion over Bournemouth is one point, and Bournemouth have scored 16 goals with a defence that has conceded 14. The margin between a good season and a mid-table one in this division is currently a single result per month.
Sixteen points from ten matches is 1.6 per game. Chelsea took 1.78 per game over the first nine and none from the tenth, and the difference between those two numbers is the whole of their November. A rate of 1.6 over 38 matches is 61 points, a total that has been enough for the top four in some seasons and not in others, which is the least comfortable place a club of this size can be.
Where the goals go
Nineteen goals in ten games is 1.9 per match, the same rate as City and better than Liverpool's 1.4. The distribution matters more than the total. Chelsea beat Manchester United 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in the previous round and lost 1-0 at Sunderland in this one, against a side that had taken five points from nine games before kick-off.
That is the pattern Merson described. Against opponents who defend deep and concede possession, Chelsea create enough to win comfortably. Against opponents who press the first pass and defend the box, they are kept at arm's length and lose by a goal. Ten games is enough to see the shape of it and not enough to call it permanent.
Level with Everton, two behind Liverpool
The comparison with Everton is the uncomfortable one. Everton have scored 12 goals, six fewer than Chelsea, and conceded 10, six fewer. They have drawn four matches Chelsea lost and are level on 16 points with a goal difference two goals worse. Points per game: both 1.6.
Liverpool, in fourth, are on 1.8. Over the remaining 28 matches that difference is worth roughly five and a half points, which is the size of the gap Chelsea are trying to close and roughly the size of the gap a single injury to a central defender can open.
What the next block decides
- Chelsea have taken 1.6 points per game, the same as Everton and Bournemouth and behind Brighton's 2.2.
- Their 19 goals are third in the league; their 16 conceded are tenth.
- Their goal difference of plus three is one better than Everton's plus two, and it is the only thing separating the two clubs.
The last of those is the trend to watch. Chelsea's season so far is a sequence of strong performances followed by a flat one, and the flat ones have all been away from home against sides in the bottom half. A coach who fixes that does not need a new striker. He needs a way to win a match 1-0 when the performance is worth 0-0.
The full division is on the tables page, Chelsea's results and the rest of the round are on the Premier League page, and the next fixtures are listed under matches.