Bayern v Arsenal: unbeaten, and built differently

Bayern Munich and Arsenal meet at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday in the third round of the Champions League league phase, and the table says the visitors are the better team. Arsenal have six points from two matches, Bayern four. Neither has lost. One of them has not conceded a goal at all, and it is not the side that has scored eight.

Two unbeaten records, two different routes

Arsenal have won both matches without conceding, four goals scored and none against, which makes them the only club in the competition whose clean sheet record has survived two rounds. Bayern have scored eight and conceded three, drew one of them and sit tenth. Two matches are not a sample; they are a description of two nights, and the descriptions could hardly be less alike.

The per-match rates are the useful part. Bayern score four goals a game in Europe and concede 1.5. Arsenal score two and concede none. Wednesday is the first time this season that either side faces an opponent whose numbers are built the other way round, and that is the tactical question the fixture asks.

The table after two matchdays

Nine clubs have six points and only the top eight go straight to the last 16. Bayern are the best-placed side outside that line, on four points with a goal difference of plus five, which is better than five of the nine clubs above them. After two rounds of a 36-team table, position is mostly a description of the fixture list.

Bayern's domestic numbers

In the Bundesliga, Bayern are top on 14 points from six matches, level with Borussia Dortmund and ahead on goal difference, with 22 goals scored and five conceded. Only Dortmund, with four, have conceded fewer. The 22 goals are the most in the division by six, and they have come from a team that has drawn two of six, which is the detail a form line hides.

That is 3.67 goals per game domestically against 4.0 in Europe, and 0.83 conceded against 1.5. The European sample is two matches and includes a draw; the domestic one is six and includes four wins. Neither is a forecast, but together they describe a side that creates a high volume of chances and gives up more of them than its league position suggests.

Arsenal's platform

Arsenal are second in the Premier League on 18 points from seven, one behind Manchester City, with six wins, one defeat, 11 goals scored and five conceded. It is the most controlled start in the division after City's, and it rests on the same foundation as the European record: few goals against, and enough at the other end.

Ezri Konsa has said the squad is confident about its chances in the competition, in comments reported before the match. Confidence is cheap in October, but the numbers behind the mood are not: five conceded in seven league games, none in two European ones, and a goal difference of plus six domestically.

The team news question

Bayern's clearest uncertainty concerns Michael Olise, whose availability after a red card in the competition has been reported and debated in the German and English press this week. The club has not confirmed whether he can play, and no decision on any appeal has been announced. That is the honest state of the information, and it is the one item of team news that could change the shape of Bayern's attack.

Beyond Olise, no absence has been confirmed by either club that would alter the structure of its team. Where a player's status is unclear, this page does not guess.

The odds

The market is close and slightly favours the home side: Bayern at 2.15, the draw at 3.75, Arsenal at 3.05, with a line of 2.5 goals. Those prices imply 46.5, 26.7 and 32.8 per cent, a book of 106 per cent, which normalised reads 43.9, 25.2 and 30.9. The market gives Bayern a small edge and treats the draw as the least likely of three outcomes that are all live.

The goals line is the more interesting number. A total of 2.5 sits awkwardly against Bayern's four goals a game and Arsenal's two clean sheets, and it tells you the market expects the match to be decided by which of those two records holds, not by both of them at once.

What to watch

• Arsenal are the only club in the competition yet to concede a goal.
• Bayern have scored eight in two matches; Arsenal have scored four.
• Nine clubs are on six points and only the top eight go straight to the last 16.
• Olise's availability has been reported as uncertain; the club has not confirmed it.

The Champions League section carries the full table and the rest of matchday three, the Bundesliga page tracks Bayern's domestic run, and every fixture on the card is listed with prices on the matches page.